Trump Revives "Maximum Pressure" on Iran, But Does He Want War?

Renewed Sanctions and a Nuclear Standoff

Seven years after the initial rollout of his "maximum pressure" campaign, former US President Donald Trump has reignited his aggressive stance against Iran, vowing to reduce Iranian oil exports to "zero." Tehran, however, remains defiant, signaling a willingness for dialogue while emphasizing its continued commitment to not developing nuclear weapons.

Trump's renewed pressure campaign comes in the form of a national security presidential memorandum, the details of which remain largely undisclosed. The former president has described himself as "torn" and "unhappy" about signing the document, expressing hope that its implementation won't be necessary. This conflicting messaging creates uncertainty about the true extent of the impending sanctions.

A History of Tension: From the JCPOA to "Maximum Pressure"

Trump's actions mark a return to the policies that defined his first term, most notably his 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. This landmark agreement, painstakingly negotiated with world powers, placed strict limitations on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump, encouraged by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, abandoned the deal and imposed crippling sanctions on the Iranian economy.

These sanctions, broadened by the subsequent Biden administration, have had a devastating impact on Iran's economy, fueling rampant inflation and dramatically devaluing the national currency. Despite this, Iran continued to engage in indirect talks to revive the JCPOA until it stalled, though not officially defunct.

The "Nuclear Peace Agreement" and a Path to Dialogue?

Despite the aggressive rhetoric, Trump insists his primary goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He has even spoken of a potential "nuclear peace agreement," envisioning celebrations across the Middle East. However, Iranian officials have responded that their commitment to not pursuing nuclear weapons is already well-established.

"We have declared that we are not pursuing and will not pursue nuclear weapons, and we remain engaged with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)," stated Mohammad Eslami, Iran's nuclear chief, underscoring the established Iranian policy.

Escalating Tensions and Military Posturing

While dialogue remains a possibility, tensions continue to simmer. Iran is enriching uranium to 60 percent, a level significantly closer to weapons-grade material, though it maintains it has not taken steps to build a weapon. Simultaneously, Iranian armed forces have engaged in extensive military exercises, showcasing new offensive capabilities including an underground missile base and advanced drone technology.

As the international community watches closely, the future of US-Iran relations hangs precariously in the balance. The revival of "maximum pressure" raises the specter of further escalation, but the possibility of dialogue, however slim, remains a flicker of hope in a complex and volatile geopolitical landscape.